Better economic model to software project / product development

As agile methodologies are being adopted by increasing number of organizations, there is a greater need to understand its value. I am trying to gauge / attempt to understand the value of Agile Methodologies by introducing a new economic model. The early thinking processes suggest that uncertainty level has a strong effect of the level of process effectiveness. Lower level of uncertainty is associated with high levels of project effectiveness regardless the level of pre-committed project costs and project duration. When the level of uncertainty is high, the level of process effectiveness is low regardless of the level of pre-committed project costs and project duration; and, the process effectiveness declines at a fast rate with longer project duration and/or higher level of pre-committed project costs. Tools like Agile methodology's etc value-adding comes from its core values of effective communication, and starting from small for shorter duration. It is suitable for projects with high levels of uncertainty. In contrast, the plan driven approach, tends to increase project duration, pre-committed project costs and fails to reduce the level of uncertainty. It is only suitable for projects with low level of uncertainty. In addition to this a good resource plan with hierarchical mentoring across execution with low cost resources can save up to 40-55% of costs for nonexclusive domains & for exclusive domains Knowledge Management can save us in millions. Suggest your view /experiences let's keep this two way.